3
Hard To Figure
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 105
Santa Anita · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | Joel Rosario | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Del Mar | Juan Hernandez | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Santa Anita | Juan Hernandez | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Santa Anita | Armando Ayuso | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 09/11/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 19/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 4/5 | 96% | 63% | -0.33 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |