6
Believer
2yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 68
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Golden State Juvenile Stakes · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Del Mar | Joel Rosario | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Del Mar | Armando Ayuso | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-2 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +38.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |