4
The Moe Show
2yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 67
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Golden State Juvenile Stakes · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Santa Anita | Kyle Frey | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Kyle Frey | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-06-28 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Jeremy Laprida | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Santa Anita | Armando Aguilar | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 29/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength40%
Delivery trend +11.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 12/10/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |