Chaotic Neutral

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 7 · OR 86

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-17	Santa Anita	Welfin Orantes	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-09-04	Del Mar	Welfin Orantes	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-20	Del Mar	Welfin Orantes	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 60/100

▬ EDGING AHEAD

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -41.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/07/2026	8th	20/1	0%	36%	+0.36
04/09/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	75%	+0.28
17/10/2026	8th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47