Alpine Thunder
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 9 · OR 94
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Armando Ayuso | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Joel Rosario | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/12/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |