Arkadelphia
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 81
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Del Mar | Edwin Maldonado | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Del Mar | Alfredo Bautista | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Santa Anita | Edwin Maldonado | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-12-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Edwin Maldonado | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Del Mar | Edwin Maldonado | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Del Mar | Edwin Maldonado | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 16/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |