3

Check's On The Way

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 83

Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Del Mar 05/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 98 · 5f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 98 par5/09C6OR 98C6 @ Santa Anita 04/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 99 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 99 parC6 @ Del Mar 07/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 100 · 5f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/11/2025 · OR 100 par7/11C6OR 100C6 @ Santa Anita 15/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 101 · 6f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 101 parC5 @ Santa Anita 14/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 89 · 6f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 89 par14/02C5OR 89C6 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 88 parC6 @ Del Mar 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 85 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 85 par24/07C6OR 85C8 @ Del Mar 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 85 parC6 @ Santa Anita 03/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 81 · 6f Fm 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/10/2026 · OR 81 par3/10C6OR 81projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-03Santa AnitaJ R Leparoux?9th7th+2
2026-08-27Del MarUmberto Rispoli?4th4th0
2026-07-24Del MarUmberto Rispoli?8th6th+2
2026-06-19Los Alamitos RacecourseCesar Belmont?6th4th+2
2026-02-14Santa AnitaAntonio Fresu?8th5th+3
2026-01-15Santa AnitaUmberto Rispoli?8th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0915/0124/073/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength44%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20254th10/147%57%+0.10
04/10/20259th9/276%20%-0.56
07/11/20252nd7/163%86%+0.23
15/01/20268th11/271%0%-0.71
14/02/20268th14/126%13%-0.14
19/06/20266th16/116%17%+0.01
24/07/20268th7/163%0%-0.63
27/08/20264th13/266%63%-0.03
03/10/20269th16/116%0%-0.16