
Check's On The Way
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3 · OR 83
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Santa Anita | J R Leparoux | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-08-27 | Del Mar | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Del Mar | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Cesar Belmont | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Santa Anita | Antonio Fresu | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-01-15 | Santa Anita | Umberto Rispoli | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 15/01/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 03/10/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |