10
Dirty Words
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 10 · OR 99
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Kyle Frey | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | Armando Ayuso | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Armando Ayuso | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Santa Anita | Armando Ayuso | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Santa Anita | Armando Ayuso | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Santa Anita | Armando Ayuso | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 58/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 02/01/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 11/10 | 94% | 38% | -0.57 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 26/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 02/08/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |