Midnite Musket
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 100
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Armando Aguilar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Armando Aguilar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Del Mar | Armando Aguilar | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Del Mar | Armando Aguilar | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Armando Aguilar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Del Mar | Welfin Orantes | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 14/08/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 04/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 19/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |