Tapalo
5yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 103
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Santa Anita | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Del Mar | Kazushi Kimura | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Santa Anita | Emisael Jaramillo | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 56% | -0.27 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 02/10/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |