4
Desert Hawk
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 4 · OR 73
Santa Anita · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Santa Anita | Armando Ayuso | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Francisco Monroy | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Del Mar | Francisco Monroy | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Santa Anita | Francisco Monroy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Santa Anita | Francisco Monroy | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Santa Anita | Kyle Frey | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 10-10 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 09/10/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |