10

Doing Time

3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 10 · OR 90

Santa Anita · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 14/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 81 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 81 par14/03C6OR 81C6 @ Santa Anita 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 84 · 6f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 84 parC6 @ Santa Anita 25/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 93 par25/04C6OR 93C6 @ Santa Anita 24/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 95 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 95 parC6 @ Santa Anita 12/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 91 · 6f110y Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 91 par12/06C6OR 91C6 @ Del Mar 25/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 90 parC6 @ Del Mar 16/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 89 par16/08C6OR 89C6 @ Del Mar 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 90 · 1m 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 90 parC9 @ Santa Anita 26/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 90 · 1m 122 · below its mark26/09/2026 · OR 90 par26/09C9OR 90projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Santa AnitaUmberto Rispoli?3rd3rd0
2026-09-07Del MarAbel Lezcano?3rd0th+3
2026-08-16Del MarAbel Lezcano?3rd0th+3
2026-07-25Del MarAbel Lezcano?5th2nd+3
2026-06-12Santa AnitaKazushi Kimura?6th3rd+3
2026-05-24Santa AnitaAlfredo Bautista?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0324/0516/0826/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -9.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/03/20263rd33/10%75%+0.75
04/04/20264th20/10%67%+0.67
25/04/20265th14/126%50%+0.24
24/05/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
12/06/20266th15/261%38%-0.23
25/07/20265th16/116%56%+0.40
16/08/20263rd10/147%60%+0.13
07/09/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
26/09/20263rd9/488%78%-0.10