Gray Thunder

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · Draw 1 · OR 87

Santa Anita · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-17	Santa Anita	Tiago Pereira	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2025-05-09	Santa Anita	Tiago Pereira	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2025-01-20	Santa Anita	Tiago Pereira	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 49/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▼

Strength8%

Delivery trend -33.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/01/2025	5th	16/1	16%	60%	+0.44
09/05/2025	3rd	11/4	86%	60%	-0.26
17/10/2026	7th	12/1	37%	14%	-0.23