Papa Santos
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 7 · OR 82
Santa Anita · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Del Mar | Tiago Pereira | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-06 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | Tiago Pereira | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-05-29 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Santa Anita | Tiago Pereira | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -20.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 14/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 02/10/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |