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5

Archangel Josepi

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 3 · OR 55

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y

#6

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still looking for a breakthrough victory but placed twice at Newcastle early this year, beaten only by an improver over 7f in March. Shaped as if retaining ability after a 7-month break (left Brian Ellison) when fifth of 11 in handicap at Musselburgh (7f, good, 66/1) 19 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 17/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 7f14y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 62 par17/115OR 626 @ Newcastle 02/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 60 · 1m5y Std 135 · beat its mark02/12/2025 · OR 60 par5 @ Southwell 19/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m13y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/12/2025 · OR 62 par19/125OR 625 @ Southwell 03/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 62 · 7f14y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/01/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Southwell 17/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m13y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 61 par17/015OR 616 @ Newcastle 14/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 59 · 1m5y Sta 129 · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 57 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 57 par5/036OR 576 @ Kempton 30/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 57 · 7f Sta 132 · below its mark30/03/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Musselburgh 12/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 56 · 7f15y GS 130 · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 56 par12/106OR 56projClass-projected finish: 12th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12MusselburghS H James65th5th0
2026-03-30KemptonBen Robinson67th7th0
2026-03-05NewcastleBen Robinson62nd2nd0
2026-02-14NewcastleBen Robinson63rd3rd0
2026-01-17SouthwellBen Robinson57th6th+1
2026-01-03SouthwellBen Robinson53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/113/015/0312/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 59/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength8%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/11/20254th25/10%50%+0.50
02/12/20252nd11/271%86%+0.15
19/12/20254th10/382%63%-0.20
03/01/20263rd16/116%50%+0.34
17/01/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
14/02/20263rd9/488%71%-0.17
05/03/20262nd6/168%91%+0.22
30/03/20267th7/163%0%-0.63
12/10/20265th66/10%60%+0.60