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6

Captive Beauty

3yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 11 · OR 55

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Just failed to make a winning handicap debut at Wolverhampton (7f) and has finished placed of 2 of her outings in similar company since, albeit beaten a long way into second in a 13-runner event at Kempton (1m) 22 days ago, Place claims again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 6f Yie 12610/09C?C8 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f180y Sft 1335 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f36y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS28/0656 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 56 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f1y Std 129 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 58 par13/086OR 586 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 57 · 7f3y GS 127 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m142y Std 130 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 56 par15/096OR 566 @ Kempton 09/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 55 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark09/10/2026 · OR 55 par9/106OR 55projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09KemptonKaiya Fraser62nd2nd0
2026-09-15WolverhamptonAlexandra Egan611th11th0
2026-08-30YarmouthJosephine Gordon63rd3rd0
2026-08-13LingfieldDavid Probert68th8th0
2026-07-21WolverhamptonDavid Probert62nd2nd0
2026-06-28WolverhamptonPhoebe Edwards510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0921/0715/099/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/09/20258th18/15%46%+0.41
08/04/20266th5/174%38%-0.36
28/06/202610th100/10%18%+0.18
21/07/20262nd16/116%89%+0.73
13/08/20268th18/15%36%+0.31
30/08/20263rd17/255%80%+0.25
15/09/202611th7/282%9%-0.72
09/10/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13