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Distillate

6yo Mare · 10-0 · Draw 10 · OR 60

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Irish raider who has won twice over 7f here in recent weeks, though was beaten into third when bidding for the hat-trick here on Thursday night. Respected again if turned out quickly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA57 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 57 · 7f Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 57 par20/0357OR 57BHA56 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 56 · 5f180y Hvy 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/03/2026 · OR 56 parBHA53 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 53 · 1m20y Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 53 par2/0953OR 53C8 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 6f Std 143 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 49 parBHA49 @ Listowel 22/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 49 · 7f15y Yie 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 49 par22/0949OR 49BHA48 @ Bellewstown 30/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 48 · 7f205y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Southwell 15/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 47 · 7f14y Std 128 · beat its mark15/10/2026 · OR 47 par15/106OR 476 @ Southwell 19/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 47 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark19/10/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Southwell 29/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 50 · 7f15y Std 130 · beat its mark29/10/2026 · OR 50 par29/106OR 50projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-29SouthwellS M Levey63rd3rd0
2026-10-19SouthwellConnor Planas61st1st0
2026-10-15SouthwellMikey Sheehy61st1st0
2026-09-30BellewstownAdam CaffreyBHA488th7th+1
2026-09-22ListowelAdam CaffreyBHA498th7th+1
2026-09-10LaytownSam Coen?3rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0310/0915/1029/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 80/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/202614th17/255%0%-0.55
30/03/202614th25/10%7%+0.07
02/09/202614th16/116%13%-0.02
10/09/20263rd11/142%78%+0.36
22/09/20268th28/10%50%+0.50
30/09/20268th28/10%46%+0.46
15/10/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
19/10/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
29/10/20263rd11/1094%82%-0.12