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Dumfries

6yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 7 · OR 51

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless in 2026 but has made the frame on 5 of his last 6 starts, swiftly getting back to form under a switch to positive tactics when third of 13 in handicap at this C&D (12/1) 7 days ago. Can give another good account with regular rider back on board.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 16/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 58 · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 58 par16/105OR 585 @ Beverley 14/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 58 · 7f96y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 58 par5 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 57 · 7f75y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 57 par28/075OR 576 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m100y Goo 138 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 54 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 54 par27/086OR 546 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 52 · 1m100y Goo 134 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Wolverhampton 29/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 51 · 1m142y Std 131 · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 51 par29/096OR 516 @ Southwell 10/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 52 · 1m13y Std 132 · beat its mark10/10/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Southwell 24/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 51 · 1m13y Std 131 · beat its mark24/10/2026 · OR 51 par24/106OR 51projClass-projected finish: 9th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-24SouthwellWilliam Pyle63rd3rd0
2026-10-10SouthwellJ P Sullivan69th9th0
2026-09-29WolverhamptonJ P Sullivan62nd2nd0
2026-09-16BeverleyJ P Sullivan63rd3rd0
2026-08-27SouthwellJ P Sullivan64th4th0
2026-08-13BeverleyJ P Sullivan64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1013/0829/0924/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength59%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20256th22/10%44%+0.44
14/07/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
28/07/20265th9/153%33%-0.19
13/08/20264th10/147%67%+0.19
27/08/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
16/09/20263rd8/158%78%+0.20
29/09/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
10/10/20269th14/126%27%+0.01
24/10/20263rd12/137%83%+0.46