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12

Herstmonceux

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 12 · OR 52

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y

#14

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ulysses gelding who was beaten a long way in 3 qualifying runs. More needed on handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength93%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0843 @ Salisbury 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR - · 1m1f201y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS21/0834 @ Wolverhampton 28/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 1m142y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS28/094projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28WolverhamptonLewis Edmunds47th5th+2
2026-08-21SalisburyLewis Edmunds33rd-1th+3
2026-08-04Ffos LasLewis Edmunds45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0821/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 69/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength41%

Delivery trend -1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/08/20265th125/10%43%+0.43
21/08/20263rd40/10%50%+0.50
28/09/20267th250/10%40%+0.40