Joud
3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 14 · OR 54
Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y
#13
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Southwell | C Horgan | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | Wolverhampton | C Horgan | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | C Horgan | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ripon | Callum Rodriguez | 3 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-27 | Newcastle | K Stott | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +14.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 02/09/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 15/10/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 62% | -0.02 |