Oxford Circus
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 1 · OR 49
Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 7.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Southwell | Christian Howarth | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-10-06 | Brighton | S D Bowen | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lingfield | Callum Shepherd | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | J M Sheridan | BHA47 | 14th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fairyhouse | Jared Huggan | BHA52 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cork | J M Sheridan | BHA53 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 59% | +0.32 |
| 04/05/2026 | 14th | 18/1 | 5% | 7% | +0.02 |
| 19/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 38% | -0.05 |
| 28/05/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 10/06/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/08/2026 | 9th | 7/2 | 82% | 27% | -0.54 |
| 06/10/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 15/10/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 69% | -0.15 |