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13

Volenti

7yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 5 · OR 48

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 1) · 1m 13y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

It's now 25 runs since his last success but he again shaped well when only just failing to reel in a better-positioned rival in a 12-runner C&D handicap 3 weeks ago. That form is working out well and he's shortlisted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ripon 17/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 52 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 52 par17/056OR 526 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 50 · 1m5y Std 130 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 49 · 7f219y Gd 126 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 49 par20/066OR 495 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 49 · 1m Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 1m1f Goo 129 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 49 par19/076OR 496 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m1f170y Sft 135 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Newcastle 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m5y Std 128 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 48 par19/096OR 486 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 48 · 1m5y Std 123 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Southwell 10/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 47 · 1m13y Std 127 · beat its mark10/10/2026 · OR 47 par10/106OR 47projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10SouthwellJonny Peate62nd2nd0
2026-09-25NewcastleRowan Scott65th5th0
2026-09-19NewcastleOlivia Haines65th5th0
2026-08-31RiponO J Orr63rd3rd0
2026-07-19RedcarA Mullen63rd3rd0
2026-07-06RiponCam Hardie54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/056/0719/0910/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 59/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -3.9% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20264th11/142%75%+0.33
02/06/20264th9/276%75%-0.01
20/06/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19
06/07/20264th22/10%63%+0.63
19/07/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05
31/08/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
19/09/20265th7/282%56%-0.26
25/09/20265th11/271%60%-0.11
10/10/20262nd11/271%91%+0.20