14
Abu Royal
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 12 · OR 48
Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Yarmouth | Tom Marquand | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | Beverley | Billy Garritty | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | Billy Garritty | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | Aiden Brookes | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | Aiden Brookes | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Newcastle | Aiden Brookes | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 13/03/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 22% | -0.41 |
| 28/03/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 58% | +0.53 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.76 |
| 16/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 12/10/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |