Blue Samuna
3yo Filly · 9-4 · Draw 11 · OR 53
Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y
#14
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Southwell | R Havlin | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | Kempton | R Havlin | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Lingfield | R Havlin | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | R Havlin | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | Harry Davies | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | Alexandra Egan | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 09/09/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 27/11/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 38% | -0.26 |
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 07/10/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 24/10/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |