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2

Desert Charm

4yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 1 · OR 55

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Back to winning ways at Chepstow in June and followed up in a classified event at Lingfield 12 days later. Made laboured progress into third at Bath last month but travelled with more fluency when runner-up at Yarmouth (1m) 19 days ago. Can be in the mix again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Windsor 01/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 53 · 1m31y Sft 123 · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 53 par1/096OR 536 @ Kempton 10/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 51 · 1m Sta 131 · beat its mark10/10/2025 · OR 51 par6 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 7f14y Std 129 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 49 par7/056OR 496 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 48 · 1m14y Gd 128 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Lingfield 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 50 · 7f135y Goo 135 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 50 par27/066OR 506 @ Salisbury 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 52 · 1m Goo 138 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Chepstow 09/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m14y GF 137 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 55 par9/086OR 556 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 55 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Yarmouth 12/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 55 · 1m3y Goo 130 · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 55 par12/106OR 55projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12YarmouthPaddy Bradley62nd2nd0
2026-09-12BathDaniel Muscutt63rd3rd0
2026-08-09ChepstowCallum Shepherd68th8th0
2026-07-25SalisburyH Crouch62nd2nd0
2026-06-27LingfieldPaddy Bradley61st1st0
2026-06-15ChepstowCharles Bishop61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0915/069/0812/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 54/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20259th16/116%27%+0.11
10/10/20256th15/261%58%-0.02
07/05/20263rd11/142%78%+0.36
15/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
27/06/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
25/07/20262nd7/491%80%-0.11
09/08/20268th9/488%36%-0.52
12/09/20263rd11/271%85%+0.14
12/10/20262nd7/282%91%+0.09