Hear The Drums
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 4 · OR 53
Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y
#2
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Ayr | O J Orr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Southwell | Warren Fentiman | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | Warren Fentiman | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | O J Orr | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Beverley | Warren Fentiman | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catterick | Ethan Tindall | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 20/04/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 21/05/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 24/09/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 58% | -0.02 |
| 08/10/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 42% | +0.26 |