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5

Kondratiev Wave

9yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 6 · OR 52

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained reward for his consistency when dead-heating at Lingfield (7f) in February. Has run some creditable races in defeat since but was below form back on all-weather at Kempton 26 days ago, so needs to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Lingfield 25/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 55 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark25/03/2026 · OR 55 par25/036OR 556 @ Southwell 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 55 · 1m13y Std 135 · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Bath 12/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 56 · 1m Fm 131 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 56 par12/056OR 566 @ Brighton 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 57 · 6f210y Goo 132 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Brighton 07/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 57 · 6f210y GF 138 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 57 par7/076OR 576 @ Windsor 20/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 56 · 1m31y GF 134 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Brighton 06/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 56 · 7f216y Goo 126 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 56 par6/086OR 566 @ Brighton 24/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 55 · 6f210y Goo 135 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Kempton 05/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 54 · 7f Sta 129 · beat its mark05/10/2026 · OR 54 par5/106OR 54projClass-projected finish: 12th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-05KemptonKieren Fox69th9th0
2026-08-24BrightonBilly Loughnane63rd3rd0
2026-08-06BrightonJack Doughty64th4th0
2026-07-20WindsorBilly Loughnane62nd2nd0
2026-07-07BrightonD Egan66th6th0
2026-05-29BrightonD Egan64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0329/056/085/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength34%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/03/20264th6/492%63%-0.30
29/04/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
12/05/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15
29/05/20264th5/287%50%-0.37
07/07/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
20/07/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
06/08/20264th8/158%40%-0.18
24/08/20263rd3/184%75%-0.09
05/10/20269th22/10%33%+0.33