Lili Marleen
4yo Filly · 9-12 · Draw 2 · OR 58
Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Southwell | L Morris | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-10-17 | Southwell | Rhys Clutterbuck | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | Wolverhampton | Pierre-Louis Jamin | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | Jason Watson | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | Pierre-Louis Jamin | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | Finley Marsh | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/04/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |
| 31/07/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/08/2026 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 250/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/09/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/10/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 24/10/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |