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11

Mali Star

3yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 10 · OR 52

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#12

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains winless and was tried in cheekpieces when fading into eighth of 13 in handicap at Bath (1¼m) 28 days ago on his final run for Jack Channon back in June. Reverts to shorter trip on debut for a new handler.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 7f GS 130 · HIGHER CLASS20/0944 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f213y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Kempton 13/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 7f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS13/1056 @ Southwell 31/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m13y Std 132 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 57 par6 @ Chelmsford City 27/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 55 · 1m Std 135 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 55 par27/116OR 556 @ Bath 27/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 52 · 1m Fm 127 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 52 · 1m Gd 132 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 52 par4/056OR 526 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m2f37y Gd 133 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 53 par5/066OR 53projClass-projected finish: 11th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-05BathGeorge Bass68th8th0
2026-05-04BathGeorge Bass63rd3rd0
2026-04-27BathGeorge Bass63rd3rd0
2025-11-27Chelmsford CityEdward Greatrex66th6th0
2025-10-31SouthwellCallum Rodriguez65th5th0
2025-10-13KemptonEdward Greatrex511th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0931/104/055/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 14-14 · tight 89/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -9.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/09/20259th22/10%33%+0.33
02/10/20257th16/116%25%+0.09
13/10/202511th150/10%9%+0.09
31/10/20255th10/382%43%-0.40
27/11/20256th9/276%29%-0.48
27/04/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
04/05/20263rd6/594%71%-0.22
05/06/20268th4/179%42%-0.37