IvyArcIvyArc
13

Millbuie

5yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 5 · OR 48

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden but placed for the fifth time this season when second at Hamilton (1m) in September. Below-form seventh of 10 in handicap at Newcastle (1¼m) 29 days ago, however. Visor back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 45 · 1m2f42y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 45 par2/066OR 456 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m68y Goo 123 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 1m Gd 135 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 48 par5/076OR 486 @ Ayr 13/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 48 · 1m Goo 118 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m2f42y Sta 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 49 par31/076OR 496 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 49 · 1m2f43y Std 129 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 49 par2/096OR 496 @ Hamilton 21/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 48 · 1m68y Sft 128 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Newcastle 02/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m2f42y Std 126 · beat its mark02/10/2026 · OR 48 par2/106OR 48projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02NewcastleJoanna Mason67th7th0
2026-09-21HamiltonWilliam Pyle62nd2nd0
2026-09-02NewcastleRhys Elliott66th6th0
2026-08-10AyrWilliam Pyle63rd3rd0
2026-07-31NewcastleWilliam Pyle62nd2nd0
2026-07-13AyrWilliam Pyle67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0613/072/092/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 5-14 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength21%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/06/20263rd16/116%83%+0.68
10/06/202610th16/116%10%-0.06
05/07/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25
13/07/20267th6/168%25%-0.43
31/07/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
10/08/20263rd11/486%78%-0.08
02/09/20266th12/137%17%-0.20
21/09/20262nd17/255%83%+0.28
02/10/20267th22/10%33%+0.33