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7

Oppenheimer

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 7 · OR 54

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#11

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran well from an easing mark when third of 15 in handicap at Killarney (1m, soft) 26 days ago and looks of major interest of the back of a very eye-catching stable switch (left Kevin Thomas Coleman).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 8.1)

Highest class: BHA52
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Leopardstown 17/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 6f110y Gd 13017/07C8C8 @ Curragh 09/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 7f Gd 133C8 @ Naas 18/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 5f205y Yie 13118/09C8BHA65 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 65 · 6f Sft 124 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 65 parBHA64 @ Curragh 04/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 20 · OR 64 · 6f Gd 124 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 64 par4/0564OR 64BHA60 @ Gowran Park 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Goo 142 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 60 parBHA59 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 59 · 1m Yie 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 59 par30/0859OR 59BHA55 @ Listowel 22/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 55 · 7f15y Yie 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 55 parBHA52 @ Killarney 05/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 52 · 1m30y Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/10/2026 · OR 52 par5/1052OR 52projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-05KillarneyBen CoenBHA523rd2nd+1
2026-09-22ListowelColin KeaneBHA5510th9th+1
2026-08-30CorkConor CusackBHA5912th12th+0
2026-08-07Gowran ParkColin KeaneBHA604th4th0
2026-05-04CurraghChris HayesBHA647th8th−0
2026-04-19CurraghRobbie ColganBHA6511th12th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0719/0430/085/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 48/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/202511th11/142%23%-0.19
09/08/20258th100/10%22%+0.22
18/09/20257th25/10%45%+0.45
19/04/202611th20/10%50%+0.50
04/05/20267th10/147%68%+0.21
07/08/20264th6/594%77%-0.17
30/08/202612th5/174%27%-0.47
22/09/202610th8/158%36%-0.22
05/10/20263rd14/126%86%+0.59