IvyArcIvyArc
12

Star Suepreme

3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 14 · OR 51

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved with cheekpieces added when winning at Beverley on handicap debut (8.5f, good) last month and quickly returned to form when third of 12 at Yarmouth (1m, good) 19 days ago. Stall 14 isn't ideal, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 06/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 7f14y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS6/0155 @ Southwell 20/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR - · 1m13y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS20/0154 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m2f GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS27/0746 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 50 · 1m4f Std 126 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 50 par18/086OR 506 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 47 · 1m100y Goo 125 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 47 par16/096OR 476 @ Beverley 22/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 47 · 1m1f207y Gd 131 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 47 par22/096OR 476 @ Yarmouth 12/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 51 · 1m3y Goo 123 · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 51 par12/106OR 51projClass-projected finish: 4th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12YarmouthMarco Ghiani63rd3rd0
2026-09-22BeverleyWarren Fentiman67th7th0
2026-09-16BeverleyWarren Fentiman61st1st0
2026-08-18LingfieldDarragh Keenan69th9th0
2026-07-27WindsorLewis Edmunds45th3rd+2
2026-01-20SouthwellTyler Heard511th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0118/0812/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/01/20264th50/10%50%+0.50
20/01/202611th200/10%0%0.00
27/07/20265th125/10%0%0.00
18/08/20269th80/10%11%+0.11
16/09/20261st50/10%100%+1.00
22/09/20267th10/382%45%-0.37
12/10/20263rd7/163%82%+0.19