IvyArcIvyArc
3

Zabriskie Point

5yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 13 · OR 53

Southwell · ARC All Weather Bonus Is Back Handicap (Div 2) · 1m 13y

#10

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed a couple of times this year but is proving difficult to win with (last scored in 2023) and finished down the field when supported here on Thursday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA60 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 60 · 7f Yie 142 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 60 par15/0460OR 60BHA61 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 61 · 7f Sft 143 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 61 parBHA61 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 61 · 7f94y Goo 131 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 61 par18/0561OR 61BHA60 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 60 · 7f Goo 142 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 60 parBHA60 @ Limerick 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 60 · 7f Yie 142 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 60 par10/0660OR 60BHA57 @ Listowel 22/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 57 · 7f15y Yie 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 57 parBHA57 @ Bellewstown 30/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 57 · 7f205y Sft 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 57 par30/0957OR 57BHA56 @ Roscommon 12/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 56 · 7f111y Sft 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/10/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Southwell 29/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 53 · 7f15y Std 133 · beat its mark29/10/2026 · OR 53 par29/106OR 53projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-29SouthwellS M Levey68th8th0
2026-10-12RoscommonAdam CaffreyBHA565th5th+0
2026-09-30BellewstownSam CoenBHA573rd3rd+0
2026-09-22ListowelReese HolohanBHA575th5th+0
2026-06-10LimerickSam CoenBHA607th7th0
2026-05-31ListowelAdam CaffreyBHA605th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0431/0530/0929/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 59/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20263rd11/271%82%+0.11
22/04/20265th3/184%69%-0.15
18/05/20262nd9/153%93%+0.40
31/05/20265th5/174%71%-0.02
10/06/20267th10/382%50%-0.32
22/09/20265th11/142%71%+0.29
30/09/20263rd6/168%85%+0.16
12/10/20265th9/276%67%-0.10
29/10/20268th4/179%42%-0.37