3
Bowdens
2yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 1 · OR 79
Southwell · All-Weather Championship Is Back Nursery (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 13y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Newmarket | Rowan Scott | 1 | 6th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-09-20 | Hamilton | Rowan Scott | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 6-6 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -52.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 10/10/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |