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4

Drum Bay

2yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 79

Southwell · All-Weather Championship Is Back Nursery (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 13y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped well when a debut second in Lingfield novice (7f, all-weather) in July but failed to go on as expected when third of 6 in maiden at Ffos Las the following month. Dropped away as if he might've been amiss when last of 8 in nursery at Sandown (1m, good to soft) 50 days ago and gelded since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Lingfield 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Std 1336/0733 @ Ffos Las 12/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f80y Gd 13312/0834 @ Sandown 11/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 130 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 79 par11/094OR 79projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11SandownRhys Clutterbuck48th9th−1
2026-08-12Ffos LasRhys Clutterbuck33rd3rd0
2026-07-06LingfieldRossa Ryan32nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0712/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 7-7 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -30.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05
12/08/20263rd11/893%60%-0.33
11/09/20268th17/255%0%-0.55