2
National Honour
2yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 6 · OR 92
Southwell · All-Weather Championship Is Back Nursery (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 13y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
97%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Doncaster | W Buick | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Kempton | Toby Moore | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | James Doyle | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | Connor Planas | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 53/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 24/10/2026 | 2nd | 4/11 | 98% | 67% | -0.31 |