2
Baandee
3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 3 · OR 75
Southwell · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 13y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Yarmouth | Cieren Fallon | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chelmsford City | Daniel Muscutt | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Chelmsford City | O J Orr | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Chelmsford City | Daniel Muscutt | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 30/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |