Star Mirage
3yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 2 · OR 78
Southwell · AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 13y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Newcastle | D Tudhope | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | F Bughanaim | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | Cieren Fallon | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | J P Spencer | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Meydan | James Doyle | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Meydan | James Doyle | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 90% | +0.35 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/7 | 97% | 60% | -0.37 |
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 93% | +0.22 |
| 28/07/2026 | 14th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 25% | -0.17 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 02/10/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |