Chantilly Lace
4yo Filly · 10-0 · Draw 6 · OR 103
Southwell · Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap · 1m 13y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Newmarket | Rossa Ryan | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-09-17 | Sandown | Rossa Ryan | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Ascot | H Crouch | 1 | 3rd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-06-20 | Royal Ascot | Rossa Ryan | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-05-04 | Newmarket | Rossa Ryan | 1 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2024-10-03 | Salisbury | Rossa Ryan | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -12.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2024 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 04/05/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 20/06/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |