7
Mcmurray
3yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 4 · OR 93
Southwell · Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap · 1m 13y
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Ayr | Jack Callan | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chester | Billy Loughnane | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Yarmouth | W Buick | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Doncaster | Billy Loughnane | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-13 | Ffos Las | Billy Loughnane | 5 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-07-12 | Salisbury | P Cosgrave | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 68/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength21%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 13/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/09/2026 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 23% | -0.37 |