4
Murashah
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 8 · OR 94
Southwell · Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap · 1m 13y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | O J Orr | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | Callum Rodriguez | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Southwell | Billy Loughnane | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2024-08-29 | Newbury | Jim Crowley | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2024-06-05 | Kempton | Jim Crowley | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2023-07-06 | Haydock | Jim Crowley | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2023 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 05/06/2024 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 55% | -0.34 |
| 29/08/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 93% | +0.09 |
| 05/10/2024 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 90% | -0.02 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |