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9

Tremolo

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 2 · OR 88

Southwell · Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap · 1m 13y

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

93%

Place Prob

65%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded back-to-back wins on all-weather last year, the second coming over C&D. Seen to good effect in a strongly-run race at Newcastle on final outing that year and understandably looked rusty when sixth of 15 at that venue (7f) 10 months on. Seemingly hard to train but return to 1m will suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 03/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 6f213y Hvy 1333/1045 @ Southwell 21/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1305 @ Southwell 10/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 13310/1254 @ Haydock 26/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 83 · 7f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark26/04/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Ascot 09/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 83 · 1m GF 133 · below its mark09/05/2025 · OR 83 par9/054OR 834 @ Kempton 28/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 7f Sta 130 · beat its mark28/05/2025 · OR 80 par3 @ Southwell 13/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 87 · 1m13y Std 132 · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 87 par13/073OR 873 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 90 · 1m5y Std 132 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 90 par2 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 89 · 7f14y Sta 126 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 89 par27/062OR 89projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27NewcastleLewis Edmunds26th6th0
2025-08-21NewcastleT E Whelan33rd4th−1
2025-07-13SouthwellT E Whelan31st2nd−1
2025-05-28KemptonT E Whelan41st3rd−2
2025-05-09AscotFinley Marsh49th11th−2
2025-04-26HaydockFinley Marsh45th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1026/0413/0727/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength50%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20244th9/153%25%-0.28
21/10/20243rd16/116%80%+0.64
10/12/20241st2/189%100%+0.11
26/04/20255th3/184%60%-0.24
09/05/20259th14/126%11%-0.15
28/05/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
13/07/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
21/08/20253rd13/266%85%+0.19
27/06/20266th9/153%62%+0.09