8
Twisting Physics
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 10 · OR 90
Southwell · Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap · 1m 13y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Goodwood | Ashley Lewis | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Windsor | Mason Paetel | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Newbury | J P Spencer | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Newmarket | J P Spencer | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | J P Spencer | 4 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-06-12 | Newbury | W Buick | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2024 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 18/11/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 19/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 18/5 | 81% | 100% | +0.19 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 62% | +0.46 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 64% | -0.23 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |