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2

Two Tempting

7yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 1 · OR 95

Southwell · Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap · 1m 13y

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful handicapper who is well-treated on the pick of his form and took a step back in the right direction when fifth of 7 in 1m handicap at Goodwood last month, though his finishing effort lacked punch. Probably vulnerable to less-exposed types.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Kempton 19/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 96 · 1m Sta 138 · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 96 par19/112OR 962 @ Chelmsford City 11/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 1m Std 133 · beat its mark11/12/2025 · OR 100 par2 @ Southwell 01/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 100 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 100 par1/012OR 1001 @ Southwell 07/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 1m13y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/02/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Wolverhampton 07/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 100 · 1m142y Std 134 · beat its mark07/03/2026 · OR 100 par7/032OR 1002 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR 100 · 1m Goo 133 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 100 par2 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 99 · 7f127y Goo 136 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 99 par22/082OR 992 @ Kempton 05/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 98 · 1m Sta 138 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Goodwood 23/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 97 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 97 par23/092OR 97projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23GoodwoodRob Hornby25th5th0
2026-09-05KemptonRob Hornby210th10th0
2026-08-22ChesterRob Hornby24th4th0
2026-07-31GoodwoodRob Hornby217th17th0
2026-03-07WolverhamptonRob Hornby23rd3rd0
2026-02-07SouthwellRob Hornby13rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/117/0222/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength27%

Delivery trend +1.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/11/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
11/12/20253rd10/382%67%-0.16
01/01/20262nd10/382%75%-0.07
07/02/20263rd16/116%67%+0.51
07/03/20263rd10/147%82%+0.34
31/07/202617th50/10%6%+0.06
22/08/20264th22/10%75%+0.75
05/09/202610th15/261%31%-0.30
23/09/20265th20/10%33%+0.33