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3

Al Alami

2yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 5

Southwell · AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March EBF 'Confined' Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 16y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sergei Prokofiev colt who was held back by inexperience when fifth of 11 in 7f novice at Kempton on debut 19 days ago. Likely to improve for good stable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength22%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 12/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 7f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS12/104
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-12KemptonCieren Fallon45th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength67%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/10/20265th11/142%60%+0.18