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5

Chapel Down

2yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 2 · OR 71

Southwell · AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March EBF 'Confined' Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 16y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sent off at 100/1 but shaped well when ½-length third of 10 in 6f novice at Wolverhampton on debut in September. Shaped clear-cut second best at Brighton subsequently and remains with potential.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength7%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f20y Std 13015/0955 @ Brighton 15/10/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f215y Goo 13315/105projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-15BrightonCharles Bishop52nd2nd0
2026-09-15WolverhamptonCharles Bishop53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0915/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/09/20263rd100/10%78%+0.78
15/10/20262nd20/10%80%+0.80