Espresso Breeze

2yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 9

Southwell · AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March EBF 'Confined' Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 16y

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▬ NO MARK

Move▬

Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C4.7

Today: 5

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-17	Southwell	O McSweeney	5	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-10-02	Newcastle	P Mulrennan	4	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-09-16	Beverley	P Mulrennan	5	7th	7th	0	3.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 49/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength72%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/09/2026	7th	28/1	0%	50%	+0.50
02/10/2026	9th	80/1	0%	27%	+0.27
17/10/2026	5th	150/1	0%	60%	+0.60