1
Palms Oasis
2yo Colt · 9-7 · Draw 4 · OR 72
Southwell · AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March EBF 'Confined' Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 16y
#1
Rank
Odds
1/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Southwell | Ross Coakley | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Southwell | Ross Coakley | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 6-6 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength45%
Delivery trend -57.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 70% | +0.65 |
| 17/10/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |