7

Red Caberneigh

2yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 1

Southwell · AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March EBF 'Confined' Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 16y

#9

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

A'ali colt who merely hinted at ability in 7f maiden at this course 25 days ago. Needs a big step forward.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength34%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 10.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Southwell 06/10/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 7f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS6/103
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-06SouthwellAlistair Rawlinson310th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 8-13 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength13%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/202610th50/10%25%+0.25