IvyArcIvyArc
1

Atomic Force

7yo Gelding · 9-12 · Draw 9 · OR 94

Southwell · Make The Move To Midnite Handicap · 6f 16y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful form when winning back-to-back on all-weather early this year and was somewhat unlucky not to score at Chester in June. Looked rusty in the Portland after 3 months off 7 weeks ago and better expected now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Wolverhampton 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 90 · 6f20y Std 138 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 90 par18/103OR 903 @ Wolverhampton 08/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 89 · 5f21y Std 129 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 89 par3 @ Southwell 13/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 88 · 4f214y Std 131 · below its mark13/01/2026 · OR 88 par13/013OR 884 @ Lingfield 31/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 86 · 5f6y Std 136 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Chelmsford City 21/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 88 · 5f Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 88 par21/022OR 882 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 94 · 5f3y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 94 par2 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 94 · 5f15y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 94 par7/052OR 943 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 93 · 5f15y Goo 142 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 93 par2 @ Doncaster 12/09/2026 · Pos 15th of 21 · OR 96 · 5f143y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 96 par12/092OR 96projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12DoncasterCallum Shepherd215th14th+1
2026-06-13ChesterP J McDonald32nd2nd0
2026-05-07ChesterH Crouch23rd2nd+1
2026-04-07PontefractO J Orr211th10th+1
2026-02-21Chelmsford CityP J McDonald21st0th+1
2026-01-31LingfieldH Crouch41st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1031/017/0512/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +6.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20255th6/168%56%-0.13
08/11/20253rd5/287%78%-0.09
13/01/20267th7/282%0%-0.82
31/01/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
21/02/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
07/04/202611th9/153%17%-0.36
07/05/20263rd15/261%78%+0.17
13/06/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18
12/09/202615th33/10%30%+0.30